RECENT REPORTS AND PUBLICATIONS


Recent published reports

 

Study on the returns to various types of investment in education and training

[Full report]

This report for DG Education and Culture analyses various investment scenarios for achieving the Lisbon targets in the educational field and compares investment costs with its related benefits. The analysis of the investments and economic returns is done at a private and social level for the different Lisbon targets and for each Member State.

 

The Costs and Benefits of Integration of EU Mortgage Markets

[Full report]

London Economics was commissioned by the European Commission - DG Internal Market and Services to study the costs and benefits of new initiatives that would lead to the full integration of markets for residential mortgages and home loans in the 25 EU Member States.  The report estimates these costs and benefits and also assesses the degree to which EU mortgage markets are integrated at present and the obstacles to their further integration.

 

Securities trading, clearing, central counterparties and settlement in EU 25 – an overview of current arrangements

[Full report]

The report provides a description of the securities trading, clearing and settlement infrastructures of the cash equities and bonds markets in the 25 Member States of the EU (as of March 2005) and an assessment of the nature of the vertical agreements between the trading, clearing and settlement infrastructures.

 

The Cost Of Space

[Full report]

This report provides a methodology to calculate and benchmark the total cost of any higher education institution’s (HEI’s) non-residential estate in the UK.

 

Drivers Of The Size Of The HE Estate

[Full report]

The report develops an estate size benchmarking tool that is based on a statistically estimated relationship between the size of the non-residential estate and a number of drivers such as income, location, characteristics of the estate and composition of the student body.

 

A Review of the All-Island Financial Services Sector
[Full report]

This report for InterTradeIreland provides an analysis of the size, scale, employment and earnings of the sector in Northern Ireland, Ireland, and in the island as a whole.  It also assesses the extent of cross-border trade in financial services and the significance of perceived barriers to cross-border trade.  Finally, the report examines the options to further integrate financial services in the island of Ireland.

 

Ex-post Evaluation of the Impact of Rescue and Restructuring Aid on the International Competitiveness of the Sector(s) Affected by Such Aid
[Full report]

 

London Economics was commissioned by the European Commission - DG Enterprise to evaluate the impact of rescue and restructuring aid on the international competitiveness on the sectors affected by such aid.  This ex-post evaluation focuses on the survival of companies having received rescue and/or restructuring State aid, the social and economic effects of such aid on the aid-receiving companies, and the impact of State aid at the sectoral level.

 

Structure and Functioning of the Electricity Market in Belgium in a European Perspective
[Full report]

 

London Economics was commissioned by the General Council of the “Commission fédérale de Régulation de l’Electricité et du Gaz” (CREG) to analyse whether, and to what extent, the current federal regulation makes the markets for production, trading and supply of electricity competitive or potentially competitive and, if not, what remedies could be implemented.  The report takes into account electricity market developments in major European countries, especially neighbouring countries, presents detailed findings regarding the structure and functioning of the three Belgian electricity markets of interest (generation, trading, and supply), analyses structural and regulatory impediments to competition in these markets, and proposes a range of remedies to address these impediments.

 

Overview of EU25 securities trading, clearing, central counterparties, and securities settlement
[Full report]

 

The report for the European Commission - DG Competition provides a pan-European overview of trading, clearing and central counterparties, settlement, and custody, of equity, corporate and government bonds, and the related infrastructures (exchanges, clearing institutions and central counterparties, central securities depositories and international central securities depositories at primary level and international central securities depositories and banks at secondary level).  In addition, the report analyses the recent evolutions in the sector. The second part of the report presents the situation in each Member State (EU25) as of February 2004 and provides comments on issues of potential competition scrutiny, such as exclusive arrangements and access.

 

Investigation of the determinants of farm-retail price spreads
[Full report]

 

London Economics was commissioned by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to undertake an econometric analysis of the factors that have affected the spreads between farm gate prices and retail prices.  According to the terms of reference of the project, the study was to focus on developments in the United Kingdom and a number of other EU Member States and cover a range of agricultural products.  Moreover, particular attention was to be paid to the buying power of food retailers as stronger buying power is often cited as one of the reasons explaining weak farm gate prices.

 

A Synthesis of the Mid-Term Evaluations of the FIFG 2000-2006
[Full report] | [Presentation]

 

This report for the European Commission - Directorate General For Fisheries summarises and highlights the key findings of 49 mid-term evaluations of the Financial Instrument for Fisheries Guidance 2000-2006.  The results of the report were presented at the conference organised by the European Commission "Steering Towards 2007-2013: What Financial Support for the Common Fisheries Policy and Coastal Zone Development?" held in Bundoran, Co. Donegal, Ireland on May 27-29, 2004.

 

Wealth Creation from Science, Engineering and Technology
[Full report]

 

The Engineering and Technology Board commissioned London Economics to undertake a study of the contribution of Science, Engineering and Technology (SET) to the wealth and quality of life in the United Kingdom.  We use two approaches in estimating the contribution of SET in the economy: the contribution of those sectors of the economy that employed SET skills most intensively, and the direct output effect of all SET workers in the economy.  We look at the contribution that SET made to the level of GDP, to the growth rate of GDP, and to the growth rate of labour productivity. In making the analysis, we compare the performance of the UK economy against the French, German, Japanese and US economies.

 

London and Foreign Direct Inward Investment
[Full report] | [Executive summary]

 

London Economics was commissioned by Greater London Authority (GLA) Economics to undertake a study on how London as a world city contributes to attract foreign direct inward investment (FDI) into the United Kingdom, and the risks to London’s attractiveness for FDI in the future. The report reviews recent trends in direct foreign inward investment into London, examines the impact and drivers of such investment and discusses some potential threats to sustaining recent trends.

 

Study of the Consequences of Further Liberalisation of the Postal Market in Norway
[Full report]

 

This Report for the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications provides consultancy advice on the consequences of further liberalisation of the postal market in Norway. The study evaluates the impact of postal liberalisation, based on qualitative analysis and quantitative modelling. Under each of the models, we assess the impacts on liberation across various scenarios, ranging from preserving the status quo to abolishing the reserved area. The results of the analysis show that the estimated impact on the profitability of Norway Post from full liberalisation is between NOK 200 million and NOK 400 million, whereas the incremental impact of accelerated liberalisation is estimated to be about NOK 147 million. In addition, we also evaluate the impact of postal liberalisation on various groups like customers, business, postal operators, government, rural areas and evaluate the consequences on employment, uniform tariffs, USO, economies of scale, effective competition and national goals.

 

PR04 Scope for Efficiency Studies

[Full report]

 

This report for OFWAT provides an assessment of the scope for future operating and capital efficiency in the water and sewerage industries by using both a "top-down" and "bottom-up" approach. The top-down approach assesses the scope for future efficiency improvements by analysing past productivity trends in the water and sewerage industries and by undertaking a comparison with "similar" industries. The "similar" industries have been selected by using cluster selection techniques. The component-based, or "bottom-up", approach estimates efficiency gains for operating expenditure and capital costs for each component activity of water and sewerage. An evaluation of potential savings from the adoption of cost-reducing technologies and management and procurement practices was also undertaken as a part of the study. Overall, our analysis suggests that operating and capital efficiency improvements in the range of 0.1% to 1.3% are achievable in AMP4. 

 

Financial markets and the funding of enterprises in the European Union: what future?

[Full report] | [Executive summary]

 

This report uses scenarios to explore the future landscape of the financial services industry in the European Union. The question posed is whether the structure of business finance will shift towards greater reliance on capital markets, equity and bonds, and away from bank finance. After reviewing the key factors that drove change in the nineties, the report examines whether these factors are likely to continue to drive change in the years ahead; looks at new pressure points and, finally, draws three scenarios for the future.

 

Comparing the economic performance of family businesses and non-family businesses

[Full report] | [Executive summary]

 

This report for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions reviews the performance of family and non-family businesses. LE’s work surveys the key characteristics of family businesses and examines the empirical evidence comparing performance with non-family businesses. Four themes appear salient in linking the key characteristics with the business performance: ownership and control, management strategies and style, long-term view, and human resources.

 

Study on a Methodology for Identifying Sectors with Serious Structural Problems
[Full report]

 

London Economics was commissioned by DG Competition state aid II to develop a general methodology to be used by EC officials to draw up an initial “List of sectors” where serious structural problems prevail. In the report we set out an analytical framework that reviews various aspects (sales, output, employment) of an industry when the industry is in decline or faces deep structural problems.  The study investigates the availability of relevant data sources at the EU or EEA level, and proposes a methodology for establishing a “List of sectors” that is robust and feasible on the basis of our findings on the availability of data.

 

 

Working Conditions in Hotels and Restaurants: National reports for France, Italy, Portugal and Sweden

[Full report France] | [Full report Italy] | [Full report Portugal] | [Full report Sweden]

 

The reports for European Foundation for the Improving of Living and Working Conditions assess the impact of trends such as globalisation, increased competition and developments in technology, and look at the role of social dialogue in the sectors. They also feature several examples of interesting and innovative practice at local and national level aimed at improving the quality of work for workers in the hotels and restaurants sector.

 

Working Conditions in Road Transport: National reports for France, Italy, Portugal and Sweden

[Full report France] | [Full report Italy] | [Full report Portugal] | [Full report Sweden]

 

The reports for the European Foundation for the Improving of Living and Working Conditions assess the impact of trends such as globalisation, increased competition and developments in technology, and look at the role of social dialogue in the sectors. They also feature several examples of interesting and innovative practice at local and national level aimed at improving the quality of work for workers in the hotels and restaurants sector

 

ICT and GDP Growth in the United Kingdom: A Sectoral Analysis:
[Full report]

 

This report for Cisco Systems quantifies the contribution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to output and labour productivity growth for twelve sectors of the UK. By using growth accounting methods, this study shows that the contribution of ICT to economic performance is substantial for most of the UK sectors.

 

“Perhaps the most important study this year was released by technology group Cisco Systems but carried out by independent consultancy London Economics. It showed that investment in information and communications technology (ICT) accounted for 25 per cent of total output growth in the UK and transformed labour productivity”. (The Daily Telegraph, 07/07/2003)

 

Assessment of Restrictions in the Supply of Professional Services:
[Full report] | [Executive summary]

 

The London Economics/Indecon report analyses competition and restrictions in eight profession in 3 sectors: engineers and architects, medical practitioners, veterinary surgeons, dentists and optometrists in the medical sector and solicitors and barristers in the legal sector. The report notes that three types of restrictions are common across the eight professions.  These are restrictions on entry to each profession, limitations on the amount of advertising practitioners can undertake and, with the exception of architects, engineers and optometrists, restrictions on the organisational form.

 

Examination of UK Milk Prices and Financial Returns:
[Available on request from the Milk Development Council. Contact person: Gregg Cheetham 01285 646 504]

 

This report presents the results of the empirical analysis of the UK dairy value chain that LE undertook for the Milk Development Council. The study examines milk prices and financial returns from the UK dairy supply chain by looking at several factors. First, we consider the relative bargaining power of the various economic actors of the dairy chain. Second, we analyse the demand of milk and its sensitivity to price and income. Third, we study the efficiency of the dairy chain and the value of the basket of dairy products produced in the UK. Fourth, we investigate price transmission between farmgate and retail prices of milk for four different EU countries. Fifth, we develop a structural model explaining the spread between the retail and the farmgate price of milk. In addition, the study also examines the link between the UK farmgate milk price and the exchange rate.

 

London Economics Review of European Union Electricity Markets

[Full report]

 

This study reviews the regulatory regimes in the EU member states and examines how the differences in regulatory policy and openness to investment are likely to have had an impact on new investment.

 

Quantification of the Macro-economic Impact of Integration of EU Financial Markets:
[Executive Summary] | [Full report] | [Press Release]

The report for the European Commission-DG Internal Market assesses the likely impact of financial market integration on equity and bond markets.  Through macroeconomic simulations it quantifies the impact on investment, GDP and employment for each of the EU countries.

 

"The study is the first substantive piece of empirical research on the impact of financial integration on the cost of share trading in Europe.” (European Commission)

 

“This research highlights the powerful role that efficient and liquid financial markets can play in complementing bank-based finance to support growth and employment in Europe." (European Commission)

 

"This study is further proof that financial market integration has an important role to play in raising the long-run growth potential of the EU economy. Financial integration will reduce the cost of financing for companies and foster a better allocation of capital. Higher growth and lower capital costs will translate into welfare gains for European citizens". (Pedro Solbes, EC Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs).

 

London Economics recently produced a report (…) attempting to measure the macroeconomic impact of financial integration. It is an excellent report, both for the wealth of information it provides, and for its econometric ingenuity”. (Professor Luigi Spaventa, Chairman of Commisione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa, Italy)

 

Assessment of the benefits of universal postal service to Consignia:
[Full report] | [Executive summary] | [Press Release]

The report for Postwatch evaluates and quantifies the benefits of Consignia’s (Royal Mail) Universal Service Obligation (USO).  The study reports the results of the application of a general economic model using pricing and production decisions by a multi-product monopolist to the postal sector. The methodology employed uses demand and supply side models and techniques to evaluate the full impact on the postal operator that results from changes in prices and quantities.

 

Investigating the Use of Regional Economic Forecasting Models in Wales:
[Full report]

 

The report for Future Skills Wales reviews the economic forecasts and forecast models used by Education and Learning Wales (ELWa) and its partners, sets out a number of recommendations on how greater benefits could be derived from the forecasting-related activities, and examines how regional data and regional forecasts can be used in a skills’ gap projection exercise.

 

Polarisation and Financial Services Intermediary Regulation
[Full report]

 

The report to the FSA studies the economic effects of a range of possible options for changes to the polarisation regime.

 

London Economics Working Papers and Economic Briefs

“Rescue and Restructuring State Aid”, August 2005. Working Paper. London Economics. [Full text]

 

“Statistical Inference in Merger Analysis”, November 2004. Working Paper. London Economics. [Full text]

 

“An Empirical Examination of the Theory and Practice of how to Set X”, September 2004. Working Paper. London Economics. [Full text]

 

“ICT investment and Productivity in the UK: a Regional Assessment”, April 2003. Economic Brief. London Economics. [Full text]

 

European Integration and Productivity: Exploring the Gains of the Single Market. [Full text]

 

OLS and Instrumental Variable Price Elasticity Estimates for Water in Mixed-Effect Models Under a Multipart Tariff Structure. [Full text]

 

An Experimental Test of Design Alternatives for the British 3G / UMTS Auction. [Full text]

 

Recent Publications by London Economics Staff

"Barriers to Entry in Belgium’s Electricity Generation Market", in Van der Linden, J., (Ed.), 2006, "Reforming network industries: experiences in Europe and Belgium. Highlights of Conference 'The Lisbon strategy: a motor for market reforms of the network industries'". Federal Planning Bureau, Central Council for the Economy and European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels.

 

 “Valuing Assets Using Real Options: An Application to Deregulated Electricity Markets” (2005), Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 17, 2.  

 

“European Financial Market Integration.  Distant Dream or Nascent Reality?” (2004), World Economics, 5, 3, July–September.

 

“Construction Sector Concentration: Evidence from Britain” (2004), Construction Management and Economics, November, 22, 979-900.

 

“The Birth and Growth of the Social-Insurance State: Explaining Old-Age and Medical Insurance Across Countries” (2004), Public Choice, forthcoming.

 

"Economic Policy Implications of World Demography Change" (2004), Federal reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, First Quarter, 89, 1, 39-64.

 

“Rating Agencies’ Actions Around the Investment-Grade Boundary” (2004), Journal of Fixed Income, 13, 4, March, 25-37.

 

"ICT, output and productivity growth in the United Kingdom: a sectoral analysis" (2004). International Productivity Monitor, 8, Spring, 37-49.

 

“A comparison of the constant-tax rule and a standard fiscal reaction rule in the IMF's MULTIMOD model” (2003). Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, 6-7, September. 

 

A Simple Way to Estimate the Gini Coefficient for Grouped as well as Ungrouped Data” (2003). Applied Economics Letters, 10, 8/10, June, 505-509. [Abstract]

 

“Taxonomy for European Competition Policy in Europe” (2003). World Competition, 26, 2, June, 303-332.

 

“How to estimate concentration using grouped data” (2003).  Applied Economics.  35, 973-983.

 

“Economic and Institutional Determinants of Internet Usage: Central and Eastern Europe and the European Union” (2003). TIGER Working Paper Series, 44, Warsaw, August. [Full text]

 

“The Puzzle of Later Male Retirement” (2002), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Third Quarter.

 

“Claims Auditing in Automobile Insurance: Fraud Detection and Deterrence Objectives” (2002). Journal of Risk and Insurance. Volume 69: Issue 3. [Abstract]

 

“Internet Use in Transition Economies: Economic and Institutional Determinants” (2002). Discussion Paper No. 2002/95. World Institute for Development Economics Research.  October. [Full text]

 

The Economics of Public Choice (2002). 2nd Edition, Edward Elgar Publishers, UK. ISBN 1 84376 066 5.

 

“Do state pensions crowd out private saving?  Evidence from the raised state pension age for British women” (2001), Journal of Pensions Management, 6, 3, April.

 

“Why the Average Age of Retirement is a Misleading Measure of Labor Supply” (2001), Monthly Labor Review, December.

 

“The New Economy, EU Accession Challenges, and the EBRD”, (2001). Revue d’Economie Financière, Special Issue.

 

“The Relevant Firm in European Merger Law: Spillover Effects and Control” (2001). World Competition, 24, 2, March, 199-210.

 

“Internet and the Competitiveness Challenge” (2001). Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship, 13, October, 107-117.

Recent Conference Presentations

“Estimation of Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Quality of Service in Post”. Paper presented at the 13th Conference on Postal and Delivery Economics. June 1-4, 2005 Antwerp, Belgium. [Full text] [Presentation]

 

“Empirical Analysis of Further Liberalisation in Norway”. Paper presented at the 12th Conference on Postal and Delivery Economics. Cork, Ireland. June 2-5, 2004. [Full text]

 

“Assessing the key economic drivers for change in the current business climate”. Paper presented at the European Outsourcing Association’s Conference. Amsterdam, the Netherlands. June 9-10, 2004. [Presentation]

 

 “Internet Use by Businesses in Old and New EU Member Countries”. Paper presented at the TIGER Conference The New Economy and Post-Socialist Transition. Warsaw, April 10-11, 2004. [Full text]

 

“A Production Model of Service Quality at An Post”. Paper presented at the 11th Conference on Postal and Delivery Economics. Toledo, Spain. June 4-7, 2003. [Full text]

 

 “Quantification of the Macro-Economic Impact of Integration of EU Financial Markets”. Presentation at the seminar "Financial Market Integration and Economic Growth: Quantifying the Effects". European Commission. Brussels, Belgium. 19 February, 2003. [Presentation]

 

“Internet Use in Transition Economies: Economic and Institutional Determinants”.  Paper presented at the XXVII Simposio de Analisis Economico. Salamanca, Spain. 12-14 December, 2002.

 

“Quantification of USO benefits for the USP”. Paper presented at the 10th Conference on Postal and Delivery Economics. Potsdam, Germany. June 5–8, 2002.